The pre-mortem is the most underused leadership tool I know. Not because leaders don’t know about it. Because admitting what could fail feels like a betrayal of the vision.
The real gap isn’t method. It’s permission. Most teams never get explicit permission to imagine failure without being labeled a skeptic or a drag on momentum.
I’ve watched seasoned leaders, people with decades of experience, skip this step entirely because the culture punished doubt. They called it faith. It was actually avoidance.
The shift happens when a leader learns to hold conviction and honest assessment at the same time. That’s not pessimism. That’s stewardship of the mission.
I don't need to think of the worst... ever. All I have to do is ask myself if I can NOT do something.
Example: Get out of bed. Can I just stay in bed today and live with myself?
If the answer is yes... I can hide from everything I can possibly hide from today and not regret it. Then... there we go. No need to ask what the worst that could happen is. I have to do it anyway.
It's interesting to read something from the perspective of the individual and using concerns about the future in a constructive way, as opposed to pointless rumination.
I used to work in the scenario development and foresight field. We would produce good quality information that would have saved people from being caught off guard about 90% of the time, if only they had paid attention to it.
Your article applies some of those techniques to the individual, and it's something I have recently been trying as a way to reduce anxiety - going through the concerns systematically, asking how valid it is, whether there is anything I can do to prepare, etc.
That's a fascinating perspective, especially coming from someone with a foresight background.
One thing that strikes me is how often the problem isn't a lack of warning, but a lack of rehearsal. As you say, the information is frequently available, yet people still get caught off guard because they've never translated the possibility into a response.
I suspect that's where Stoic practice and scenario planning overlap. Both ask us to move beyond prediction and into preparation.
Thanks for sharing this. It's given me a new lens on the article.
The pre-mortem is the most underused leadership tool I know. Not because leaders don’t know about it. Because admitting what could fail feels like a betrayal of the vision.
The real gap isn’t method. It’s permission. Most teams never get explicit permission to imagine failure without being labeled a skeptic or a drag on momentum.
I’ve watched seasoned leaders, people with decades of experience, skip this step entirely because the culture punished doubt. They called it faith. It was actually avoidance.
The shift happens when a leader learns to hold conviction and honest assessment at the same time. That’s not pessimism. That’s stewardship of the mission.
I don't need to think of the worst... ever. All I have to do is ask myself if I can NOT do something.
Example: Get out of bed. Can I just stay in bed today and live with myself?
If the answer is yes... I can hide from everything I can possibly hide from today and not regret it. Then... there we go. No need to ask what the worst that could happen is. I have to do it anyway.
https://viscousdog.substack.com/p/e4-the-outer-edge-of-good-taste-s7?r=3zlz74&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
I like that.
You're almost running a reverse premeditatio malorum.
Instead of asking "What if I do this and it goes badly?", you're asking "What if I avoid it and regret it?"
Both approaches force us to confront reality rather than negotiate endlessly with fear. The difference is where we point the spotlight.
This makes me think of the saying, “prepare for the worse, hope for the best”
It's interesting to read something from the perspective of the individual and using concerns about the future in a constructive way, as opposed to pointless rumination.
I used to work in the scenario development and foresight field. We would produce good quality information that would have saved people from being caught off guard about 90% of the time, if only they had paid attention to it.
Your article applies some of those techniques to the individual, and it's something I have recently been trying as a way to reduce anxiety - going through the concerns systematically, asking how valid it is, whether there is anything I can do to prepare, etc.
That's a fascinating perspective, especially coming from someone with a foresight background.
One thing that strikes me is how often the problem isn't a lack of warning, but a lack of rehearsal. As you say, the information is frequently available, yet people still get caught off guard because they've never translated the possibility into a response.
I suspect that's where Stoic practice and scenario planning overlap. Both ask us to move beyond prediction and into preparation.
Thanks for sharing this. It's given me a new lens on the article.